S&P Global South Korea Manufacturing PMI® 2022 10 04 발표 안좋음

 

 

 

 

Manufacturing output falls at sharpest rate since June 2020 Key findings Embargoed until 0930 KST (0030 UTC) 04 October 2022 News Release S&P Global South Korea Manufacturing PMI® Source: S&P Global. South Korea's manufacturing sector fell deeper into contraction territory during September, latest PMI® data from S&P Global showed, as another drop in new orders drove output volumes down to the quickest extent since the midst of the first COVID-19 wave in 2020. Consistent with deteriorating global economic conditions was a strong drop in export demand, while business confidence also slumped to an 11-month low. Input demand also fell, helping to reduce the strain on suppliers. Average input lead times lengthened to the least marked extent since January 2020 in September, with manufacturers subsequently seeing inflationary pressures fade. That said, amid weakness in the won, both output prices and input costs rose at historically elevated rates. The seasonally adjusted South Korea Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI®) lost further momentum in September, falling to 47.3 from 47.6 in August. This signalled the third successive monthly deterioration in the health of the South Korean manufacturing sector and one that was the strongest since July 2020. For a fifth consecutive survey period, South Korean manufacturing output declined in September. Furthermore, the downturn accelerated as production fell at the quickest pace since the midst of the first COVID-19 outbreak over two years ago. According to anecdotal evidence, excess inventory levels, both at producers and their clients, order cancellations and sluggish sales led to the drop in output. Some companies also remarked on the adverse impact of the typhoon. New orders received by South Korean manufacturers fell strongly in September, reflecting weak demand conditions in both domestic and external markets. Subdued economic conditions at key trading partners and high inflation were commonly cited reasons for falling new business intakes during the latest survey period. South Korea's manufacturing downturn worsens in September Global economic weakness weighs on demand Inflationary pressures ease but remain elevated Comment Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "Given the rapid deterioration in global manufacturing conditions, it's unsurprising to see business conditions in an open economy like South Korea trend lower. Goods production slumped at its sharpest rate since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020, reflecting weak demand, client order cancellations and overstocked inventory levels at both producers and their customers alike. "Overall new order intakes fell strongly in September as high inflation squeezed the purchasing power of clients. There were also mentions of a drop-off in the semiconductor industry as deteriorating demand for goods curtailed the chip sector. "That said, some respite was offered to businesses via supply chains as delivery times lengthened to the least marked extent in over two-and-a-half years. This fed through to costs, with suppliers reducing their fees and some raw material prices dropping amid improved availability. Nevertheless, weakness in the won continues to exert upward pressure on factory expenses as imported items remain expensive, keeping inflationary pressures elevated overall. "Brought all together, the immediate outlook for the South Korean manufacturing sector appears bleak. External factors such as the weakening global economy will certainly challenge goods producers' order books, while also keeping pressure on the won - thus pushing up imported inflation - as the dollar benefits from its safe haven status." Data were collected 12-22 September 2022. © 2022 S&P Global S&P Global South Korea Manufacturing PMI® In line with lower factory requirements, input purchasing fell in September. Lower demand for raw materials and components helped alleviate some pressures on suppliers, as evidenced by the incidence of delivery delays falling. Overall, input lead times lengthened to the least marked extent since January 2020. Receding supply chain pressures fed through to input costs in September, with operating expenses rising at the weakest pace since January 2021. According to panellists, prices for certain raw materials fell. That said, cost pressures remained historically elevated as weakness in the won pushed up prices for items purchased internationally. Subsequently, selling charges were raised to a weaker extent as some companies chose to be less aggressive in their price setting as input cost inflation slowed. Overall, selling prices increased at the softest pace since February 2021. Meanwhile, employment levels were broadly stable in September. South Korean manufacturers were nonetheless able to reduce pressure on their capacity, as signalled by a decrease in backlogs of work. According to firms, outstanding orders were cleared as a result of weaker demand. Lastly, the 12-month outlook for manufacturing production weakened in September. Anecdotal evidence highlighted expectations of an impending global economic downturn and a further deterioration in demand due to rapid inflation.

 

 

 

제조업 생산량은 2020년 6월 이후 가장 급격한 속도로 하락합니다. 주요 조사 결과 0930 KST(0030 UTC)까지 금지됨 2022년 10월 4일 보도 자료 S&P Global 한국 제조업 PMI® 출처: S&P Global. S&P Global의 최신 PMI® 데이터에 따르면 한국의 제조업 부문은 9월 동안 더 깊은 위축 영역에 빠졌습니다. 신규 주문의 또 다른 감소로 생산량이 2020년 첫 번째 COVID-19 물결의 한가운데 이후 가장 빠른 수준으로 감소한 것으로 나타났습니다. 글로벌 경제 상황 악화로 수출 수요가 크게 감소했으며 기업 신뢰도 11개월 만에 최저치로 떨어졌습니다. 입력 수요도 감소하여 공급업체의 부담을 줄이는 데 도움이 되었습니다. 평균 투입 리드 타임은 9월의 2020년 1월 이후 가장 적은 정도로 길어졌으며, 제조업체들은 이후 인플레이션 압력이 사라지는 것을 보게 되었습니다. 그러나 원화 약세 속에서 생산 가격과 투입 비용이 역사적으로 높은 비율로 상승했습니다. 계절적으로 조정된 한국 제조업 구매관리자지수(PMI®)는 9월에 추가 모멘텀을 잃어 8월의 47.6에서 47.3으로 떨어졌습니다. 이는 한국 제조업 부문의 건전성이 3개월 연속 악화되고 2020년 7월 이후 가장 강한 악화를 시사했다. 5년 연속 조사 기간 동안 한국 제조업 생산량은 9월에 감소했다. 게다가 

 

2년여 전 코로나19가 처음 발생한 이후 가장 빠른 속도로 생산량이 감소하면서 경기 침체가 가속화됐다. 일화적인 증거에 따르면 생산자와 고객 모두의 초과 재고 수준, 주문 취소 및 판매 부진으로 생산량이 감소했습니다. 

 

일부 기업은 태풍의 악영향에 대해서도 언급했다. 9월 한국 제조업체의 신규 주문이 크게 감소했는데 이는 국내외 시장의 수요 부진을 반영한 것입니다. 최근 조사 기간 동안 신규 비즈니스 유입이 감소한 이유는 주요 교역 파트너의 경기 침체와 높은 인플레이션 때문이었습니다. S&P Global Market Intelligence의 Joe Hayes 선임 이코노미스트는 "9월에 한국의 제조업 침체가 악화된다 글로벌 경제 약화가 수요를 압박한다"라고 말했다. 한국과 같은 개방 경제는 하락 추세입니다. 수요 약세, 고객 주문 취소 및 생산자와 고객 모두의 재고 수준 과잉을 반영하여 상품 생산이 2020년 상반기 COVID-19 전염병이 시작된 이후 가장 급격한 속도로 감소했습니다.

 

 "높은 인플레이션이 고객의 구매력을 압박하면서 9월에 전반적인 신규 주문 접수가 크게 감소했습니다. 반도체 산업의 수요 감소로 반도체 산업이 위축될 것이라는 언급도 나왔다. "

 

그렇지만 2년 반 동안 배달 시간이 가장 눈에 띄지 않게 길어짐에 따라 공급망을 통해 기업에 약간의 유예가 제공되었습니다. 이는 공급업체가 수수료를 낮추고 일부 원자재 가격이 하락하면서 비용으로 이어졌습니다. 

 

그럼에도 불구하고 원화 약세는 여전히 수입 품목의 고가가 유지되면서 공장 비용에 대한 상승 압력을 계속하고 있으며 전반적인 인플레이션 압력은 상승하고 있습니다."

 

 "모든 것을 종합하면 한국 제조업 분야에 대한 즉각적인 전망은 어둡게 보입니다. 세계 경제 약화와 같은 외부 요인은 확실히 상품 생산자의 주문에 도전하는 동시에 원화에 대한 압력을 유지하여 수입 인플레이션을 높일 것입니다. 낮은 공장 요구 사항에 따라 9월에 투입 구매가 감소했습니다. 원자재 및 부품에 대한 수요 감소는 납품 지연 빈도 감소로 입증된 바와 같이 공급업체에 대한 일부 압력을 완화하는 데 도움이 되었습니다. , 투입 리드 타임은 2020년 1월 이후 가장 적은 정도로 길어졌습니다. 원화 약세로 인해 구매 품목의 가격이 상승하면서 비용 압력이 역사적으로 높게 유지되었습니다. 전국적으로. 그 후, 일부 회사는 투입 비용 인플레이션이 둔화됨에 따라 가격 설정에서 덜 공격적인 것을 선택함에 따라 판매 수수료가 더 약하게 인상되었습니다. 전반적으로 판매 가격은 2021년 2월 이후 가장 낮은 속도로 상승했습니다. 한편, 9월 고용 수준은 대체로 안정적이었습니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 한국 제조업체들은 생산 능력에 대한 압박을 줄일 수 있었습니다.

작업 백로그에서. 기업들에 따르면 수요 감소로 미결제 주문이 청산됐다. 마지막으로, 9월 제조업 생산에 대한 12개월 전망이 약세를 보였습니다. 일화적인 증거는 임박한 세계 경제 침체와 급격한 인플레이션으로 인한 수요의 추가 악화에 대한 기대를 강조했습니다.