S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® 2022 10 03 안좋음

 

 

 

Manufacturing sector downturn accelerates in September as demand tumbles further and price pressures intensify Key findings: Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 48.4 (Aug: 49.6). 27-month low. Final Eurozone Manufacturing Output Index at 46.3 (Aug: 46.5). 2-month low. Data were collected 12-23 September S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Source: S&P Global. The euro area’s manufacturing sector fell deeper into contraction territory during September, latest PMI® data from S&P Global showed, due to further slides in both output and new orders. In some cases, production volumes were reduced in response to high energy prices, while many firms downwardly adjusted their operating schedules in line with lower order books. Demand for eurozone goods sank sharply in September as high inflation and economic uncertainty reportedly squeezed client appetite. Business confidence subsequently fell to its lowest level since May 2020, leading firms to cut purchasing activity further in anticipation of more challenging conditions. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures accelerated in September. Although pressures arising from material shortages had reportedly faded slightly, many companies remarked on the rising costs for energy. The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® fell to 48.4 in September, from 49.6 in August, signalling a further worsening of operating conditions for euro area goods producers. Moreover, the headline index slumped to its lowest level since June 2020. Countries ranked by Manufacturing PMI: September Ireland 51.5 2-month high Greece 49.7 3-month high Netherlands 49.0 26-month low Spain 49.0 2-month low Austria 48.8 Unchanged Italy 48.3 2-month high Germany 47.8 (flash: 48.3) 27-month low France 47.7 (flash: 47.8) 28-month low Source: S&P Global, Eurostat. Ireland was the only monitored euro area country to record a manufacturing PMI in expansion territory during September. France and Germany – the two largest eurozone economies – both recorded the worst deteriorations in manufacturing sector conditions at the end of the third quarter, with their respective PMIs at the lowest levels since the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020. For a fourth successive month, manufacturing output levels fell across the euro area. The reduction was solid overall and of a similar strength to that seen in August. Lower production was primarily a consequence of fading demand, according to panellists, although others commented on the adverse impact of ongoing supply shortages. In some cases, factory output was restricted as some firms looked to curb energy usage amid soaring prices. The downturn in manufacturing new orders continued in September and accelerated from the previous month. Overall, the decrease in demand was the sharpest since May 2020 and reflected a broad weakening of client appetite. High prices reportedly deterred customer purchases, although other companies commented on the News Release Copyright © 2022 S&P Global adverse impact from economic uncertainty. With the rate of contraction in new orders exceeding that for output, euro area manufacturers were able to make inroads into their backlogs during September. In fact, the level of work outstanding fell at the quickest rate in over two years. Employment growth continued nonetheless, but slipped to its weakest since February 2021. In a further sign of distress, eurozone manufacturers reduced their purchases of inputs for a third month and to the quickest extent since June 2020. This was in response to lower output requirements, and as part of efforts to prevent overstocked warehouses. Indeed, pre-production inventories rose once again in September despite the sustained drop in buying activity. According to firms, this reflected improving raw material availability, although others mentioned an unintentional expansion due to poor sales. Meanwhile, supplier delivery delays were at their least widespread for almost two years in September as improved raw material availability and a drop in demand helped ease pressures on vendors. Nevertheless, rates of input cost and output price inflation accelerated in September, the first time since April this has been the case. According to panellists, soaring energy prices were a key factor behind the intensification of cost pressures. In turn, factories passed on higher expenses to their clients through stronger increases in selling charges. Lastly, the level of business confidence slipped back into negative territory in September. In fact, euro area manufacturers were at their most pessimistic since May 2020. Survey respondents attributed their downbeat assessment of the year ahead to soaring energy costs, the ongoing war in Ukraine and fears of a recession. Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: "The ugly combination of a manufacturing sector in recession and rising inflationary pressures will add further to concerns about the outlook for the eurozone economy. “Excluding the initial pandemic lockdowns, eurozone manufacturers have not seen a collapse of demand and production on this scale since the height of the global financial crisis in early-2009. “The downturn is being driven primarily by the surging cost of living, which is reducing spending power and hitting demand, but soaring energy prices are also increasingly limiting production at energy intensive manufacturers. “Worse looks set to come, with orders slumping at a significantly steeper rate than production is being cut. Further steep production cuts look to be on the cards in the coming months unless demand revives. “The combination of rising costs and slumping demand has also pushed firms expectations for the year ahead sharply lower again in September, leading in turn to reduced input buying and lower jobs growth as firms prepare for a tough winter. “The energy crisis has offset the easing of inflationary pressures from fewer supply delays in recent months. Input cost inflation re-accelerated after four months of cooling price pressures, putting further upward pressure on consumer price inflation.” -Ends-

 

 

 

 

 

주요 조사 결과: 최종 유로존 제조업 PMI 48.4(8월: 49.6). 27개월 최저치. 최종 유로존 제조업 생산량 지수 46.3(8월: 46.5). 2개월 최저치. 데이터는 9월 12-23일에 수집되었습니다. S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 출처: S&P Global. S&P Global의 최신 PMI® 데이터에 따르면 유로 지역의 제조업 부문은 생산량과 신규 주문의 추가 하락으로 인해 9월 동안 위축 영역에 더 깊이 빠졌습니다. 경우에 따라 높은 에너지 가격에 따라 생산량이 감소한 반면 많은 기업은 주문량이 감소함에 따라 운영 일정을 하향 조정했습니다. 유로존 상품에 대한 수요는 9월 높은 인플레이션과 경제적 불확실성이 고객의 욕구를 압박하면서 급격히 감소했습니다. 이후 기업 신뢰도는 2020년 5월 이후 최저 수준으로 떨어졌고, 기업들은 더 어려운 상황을 예상하여 구매 활동을 추가로 축소했습니다. 한편, 인플레이션 압력은 9월에 가속화되었습니다. 자재 부족으로 인한 압박이 다소 누그러진 것으로 알려졌지만 많은 기업들이 에너지 비용 상승에 주목했다. S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI®는 8월의 49.6에서 9월의 48.4로 하락하여 유로 지역 상품 생산업체의 운영 상황이 더욱 악화되었음을 나타냅니다. 또한 헤드라인 지수는 2020년 6월 이후 최저 수준으로 하락했습니다. 제조업 PMI 순위 국가: 9월 아일랜드 51.5 2개월 최고 그리스 49.7 3개월 최고 네덜란드 49.0 26개월 최저 스페인 49.0 2개월 최저 오스트리아 48.8 변함없는 이탈리아 48.3 2개월 최고가 독일 47.8(플래시: 48.3) 27개월 최저 프랑스 47.7(플래시: 47.8) 28개월 최저 출처: S&P Global, Eurostat. 아일랜드는 9월에 확장 지역에서 제조업 PMI를 기록한 유일한 모니터링 대상 국가였습니다. 두 개의 유로존 경제대국인 프랑스와 독일은 모두 3분기 말 제조업 부문 여건이 최악의 악화를 기록했으며, 각각의 PMI는 2019년 상반기 COVID-19 대유행 이후 최저 수준을 기록했습니다. 2020. 4개월 연속 유로 지역의 제조업 생산량이 하락했습니다. 감소는 전반적으로 견고했으며 8월에 나타난 것과 유사한 강도를 보였습니다. 패널리스트에 따르면 생산량 감소는 주로 수요 감소의 결과였지만 다른 사람들은 지속적인 공급 부족의 부정적인 영향에 대해 논평했습니다. 경우에 따라 가격이 치솟는 가운데 

일부 기업이 에너지 사용을 억제하기 위해 공장 생산량을 제한했습니다. 

제조 신규 주문의 침체는 9월에도 계속되어 전월보다 가속화되었습니다.  

전반적으로 수요 감소는 2020년 5월 이후 가장 가파르게 하락

했으며 고객 욕구가 광범위하게 약화되었음을 반영했습니다. 다른 회사들은 보도 자료 Copyright © 2022 S&P Global 경제 불확실성으로 인한 부정적인 영향에 대해 논평했지만 높은 가격은 고객 구매를 억제한 것으로 알려졌습니다. 

신규 주문 감소율이 생산량을 초과

함에 따라 유로 지역 제조업체들은 9월에 수주잔고에 진입할 수 있었습니다. 실제로, 미결 작업 수준은 2년이 넘는 기간 동안 가장 빠른 속도로 떨어졌습니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 고용 성장은 계속되었지만 2021년 2월 이후 최저 수준으로 떨어졌습니다. 또 다른 고통의 징후로 

유로존 제조업체는 3개월 동안 투입재 구매를 줄였으며 2020년 6월 이후 가장 빠른 폭으로 줄었습니다. 이는 낮은 생산량 요구 사항에 대한 응답으로, 재고 과잉을 방지하기 위한 노력의 일환입니다. 실제로, 구매 활동이 지속적으로 감소했음에도 불구하고 9월에 사전 생산 재고가 다시 한 번 증가했습니다. 

기업들에 따르면 이는 원자재 가용성 향상을 반영했지만 다른 사람들은 판매 부진으로 인한 의도하지 않은 확장을 언급했습니다. 한편, 9월에는 원자재 가용성이 개선되고 수요가 감소하여 공급업체에 대한 압력이 완화되면서 공급업체 배송 지연이 거의 2년 동안 광범위하게 발생했습니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 9월에 투입 비용 비율과 산출 물가 인플레이션이 가속화되어 4월 이후 처음입니다. 패널리스트에 따르면 치솟는 에너지 가격은 비용 압박이 심화된 주요 요인이었습니다. 결과적으로 공장은 판매 비용의 더 높은 인상을 통해 더 높은 비용을 고객에게 전가했습니다. 마지막으로 9월 기업신뢰지수가 다시 마이너스로 떨어졌습니다. 실제로 유로 지역 제조업체들은 2020년 5월 이후 가장 비관적이었습니다. 설문 응답자들은 에너지 비용 급증, 우크라이나 내전 지속, 경기 침체에 대한 두려움으로 인해 올해의 낙관적인 평가를 꼽았습니다. S&P 글로벌 마켓 인텔리전스(Global Market Intelligence)의 수석 비즈니스 이코노미스트인 크리스 윌리엄슨(Chris Williamson)은 최종 제조업 PMI 데이터에 대해 "경기 침체와 인플레이션 압력 상승의 추악한 조합이 우려를 더욱 가중시킬 것"이라고 말했다.유로존 경제에 대한 전망에 대해 이야기합니다. 

"초기 팬데믹 잠금을 제외하고 유로존 제조업체는 2009년 초 글로벌 금융 위기가 절정에 달한 이후 이 규모의 수요 및 생산 붕괴를 본 적이 없습니다. “

경기 침체의 주요 원인은 생활비 급증으로 인해 소비력이 감소하고 수요가 감소하지만, 에너지 가격의 치솟는 에너지 집약적 제조업체의 생산도 점차 제한되고 있습니다. 

“생산이 감소하는 것보다 훨씬 더 가파른 속도로 주문이 감소하는 등 더 나쁜 모습이 올 것입니다. 수요가 회복되지 않는 한 앞으로 몇 달 안에 추가적인 급격한 생산 감소가 예상됩니다. “

비용 상승과 수요 침체의 조합은 9월에 기업의 내년도 기대치를 다시 급격히 낮추게 했으며, 기업이 힘든 겨울을 준비함에 따라 투입 구매 감소와 고용 성장 감소로 이어졌습니다. “에너지 위기는 최근 몇 달간 공급 지연 감소로 인한 인플레이션 압력 완화를 상쇄했습니다. 4개월 간의 냉각 가격 압력 이후 투입 비용 인플레이션이 다시 가속화되어 소비자 물가 인플레이션에 추가 상승 압력을 가하고 있습니다.” -끝-