J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ 2022 10 03 발표 안좋음

 

 

 

 

 

Global manufacturing downturn continues as output and new orders fall further Key findings Embargoed until 1100 EDT (1500 UTC) 3 October 2022 News Release J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ Source: J.P.Morgan, S&P Global. Global manufacturing production decreased for the second successive month in September, as intakes of new work deteriorated and international trade flows contracted. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and S&P Global in association with ISM and IFPSM – fell to 49.8 in September, down from 50.3 in August. This is the first time that the headline PMI has posted below the neutral 50.0 mark since June 2020. Please note that due to a later release date, data for South Korea were not available for inclusion in the September numbers. The rate of contraction in output accelerated to the fastest since April, when lockdowns in mainland China disrupted global production growth. Barring the pandemic lockdown months in the first half of 2020, the latest decline was the steepest since 2012. Production decreased in two of the three sub-sectors covered by the survey (intermediate and investment goods). The steeper contraction was at intermediate goods producers, where output fell at the quickest pace in over two years. The decline in investment goods production was only marginal, while the consumer goods category saw a mild uptick. Output rose in only ten of the 30 economies for which data are available, including the US, Brazil, India, Russia and Australia. Production losses were seen in the China, Japan, the euro area and the UK (among others) New orders and new export business both fell at faster rates in September, the steepest downturns signalled by both demand measures since June 2020. Finished goods inventories continued to rise amid weaker than anticipated sales. This combination of weaker new order inflows and inventory building led in turn to a deteriorating production outlook. This was shown by a sharp drop in future output expectations Global Manufacturing PMI edges below 50.0 no-change mark Output falls in intermediate and investment goods sectors Business optimism sinks to 28-month low 35 40 45 50 55 60 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 sa, >50 = improvement since previous month Consumer Goods PMI Intermediate Goods PMI Investment Goods PMI Source: J.P.Morgan, S&P Global. Index Aug-22 Sep-22 Interpretation sa, 50 = no change over previous month. *50 = no change over next 12 months. PMI 50.3 49.8 Deterioration, from improving Output 49.4 48.8 Decline, faster rate New Orders 48.2 47.7 Decline, faster rate New Export Orders 47.0 45.9 Decline, faster rate Future Output 60.1 57.9 Growth expected, lesser sentiment Employment 50.3 50.8 Growth, faster rate Input Prices 61.1 61.2 Inflation, faster rate Output Prices 56.7 56.6 Inflation, slower rate Index summary The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ is produced by S&P Global in association with ISM and IFPSM. J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ © 2022 S&P Global among global manufacturers during September to the lowest level since May 2020. The new-orders-to-inventory ratio also signalled ongoing potential weakness in the production trend, dropping to a 28-month low. Manufacturing employment rose for the twenty-third consecutive month in September, with job creation seen in the US, the euro area, Japan, the UK, India and Brazil. Several nations saw losses, however, including China. The latest increase in manufacturing workforce levels globally contributed to a further mild reduction in backlogs of work. Average input cost inflation ticked higher in September, halting a four-month sequence of moderating cost increases. The rise in the Input Prices Index of 0.1pts was negligible, however. Output charge inflation continued to ease, hitting a 19-month low. There were further signs of supply chain pressures easing during the latest survey month. Although average supplier lead times continued to lengthen, the deterioration in vendor performance was the weakest since September 2020. Global Manufacturing PMI Output Index sa, >50 = growth since previous month Manufacturing production %yr/yr Sources: J.P.Morgan, S&P Global. -18 -12 -6 0 6 12 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 PMI Output Index MP Comment Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, said: “The global manufacturing PMI saw output and new orders lose further ground in September, suggesting that global industrial production is slipping into recession. The orders-to-inventory ratio fell to another multi-year low last month as excess capacity continued to build at factories. The ongoing rise in stock-building is a worrying sign that demand is faltering and will weigh on activity deeper into 2H22. The September surveys offered a few silver linings, including signs of improving supply chain conditions and resilience in the labor market."

 

 

 

생산량과 신규 주문이 추가로 감소하면서 글로벌 제조 침체가 계속되고 있음 주요 조사 결과 1100 EDT(1500 UTC)까지 금지됨 2022년 10월 3일 보도 자료 J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ 출처: J.P.Morgan, S&P Global. 9월 세계 제조업 생산은 신규 작업의 유입이 악화되고 국제 무역 흐름이 위축되면서 2개월 연속 감소했습니다. J.P.Morgan과 S&P Global이 ISM 및 IFPSM과 연계하여 만든 종합 지수인 J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™는 8월 50.3에서 9월 49.8로 하락했습니다. 헤드라인 PMI가 2020년 6월 이후 중립 50.0선 아래로 게시된 것은 이번이 처음입니다. 이후 발표 날짜로 인해 한국에 대한 데이터는 9월 수치에 포함할 수 없었습니다. 생산 위축 속도는 중국 본토의 폐쇄가 글로벌 생산 성장을 방해한 4월 이후 가장 빠르게 가속화되었습니다. 2020년 상반기에 대유행이 금지된 달을 제외하고 가장 최근의 감소는 2012년 이후 가장 가파랐습니다. 설문 조사에 포함된 3개 하위 부문(중간 및 투자 상품) 중 2개에서 생산량이 감소했습니다. 가파르게 위축된 중간재 생산업체는 생산량이 2년 동안 가장 빠른 속도로 떨어졌습니다. 투자 상품 생산의 감소는 미미한 반면 소비재 카테고리는 완만한 상승세를 보였습니다. 미국, 브라질, 인도, 러시아 및 호주를 포함하여 데이터를 이용할 수 있는 30개 국가 중 10개 국가에서만 생산량이 증가했습니다. 중국, 일본, 유로 지역 및 영국에서 생산 손실이 발생했습니다 예상보다 매출이 부진한 가운데 상승할 예정이다. 약한 신규 주문 유입과 재고 축적이 결합되어 생산 전망이 악화되었습니다. 이는 미래 생산 기대치가 급격히 하락한 것으로 나타났습니다. 글로벌 제조업 PMI는 변동 없음 표시인 50.0 미만으로 하락 중간 및 투자 상품 부문의 생산량 하락 비즈니스 낙관론은 28개월 최저치로 하락 35 40 45 50 55 60 '11 '12 '13 ' 14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 sa, >50 = 전월 대비 개선 소비재 PMI 중간재 PMI 투자재 PMI 출처: J.P.Morgan, S&P Global. 지수 8월 22일 9월 22일 해석 sa, 50 = 전월 대비 변동 없음. *50 = 향후 12개월 동안 변동 없음. PMI 50.3 49.8 생산량 증가로 인한 악화 49.4 48.8 감소, 빠른 속도 신규 주문 48.2 47.7 감소, 빠른 속도 신규 수출 주문 47.0 45.9 감소, 빠른 속도 미래 생산량 60.1 57.9 예상 성장, 낮은 감정 고용 증가율 58.3615 61.2 인플레이션, 더 빠른 속도 산출 가격 56.7 56.6 인플레이션, 더 느린 속도 지수 요약 J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™는 S&P Global이 ISM 및 IFPSM과 함께 생산합니다. J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ © 2022 S&P Global은 9월 동안 글로벌 제조업체 중 2020년 5월 이후 최저 수준으로 떨어졌습니다. 또한 

 

신규 주문 대비 재고 비율은 생산 추세의 지속적인 잠재적 약점을 나타내어 28개월 최저치로 떨어졌습니다. 

 

9월 제조업 고용은 23개월 연속 증가했으며 미국, 유로존, 일본, 영국, 인도, 브라질에서 일자리 창출이 나타났습니다. 그러나 중국을 비롯한 여러 국가가 손실을 입었습니다. 전 세계적으로 제조 인력 수준의 최근 증가는 작업 잔고의 추가 감소에 기여했습니다. 평균 투입 비용 인플레이션은 9월에 더 높아져 4개월 연속 비용 증가가 중단되었습니다. 그러나 투입물가지수 0.1pt 상승은 미미한 수준이었다. 산출 요금 인플레이션은 계속 완화되어 19개월 최저치를 기록했습니다. 최근 설문 조사에서 공급망 압력이 완화되었다는 추가 신호가 있었습니다. 평균 공급업체 리드 타임은 계속 연장되었지만 공급업체 실적의 악화는 2020년 9월 이후 가장 약했습니다. 글로벌 제조업 PMI 산출 지수 sa, >50 = 전월 이후 성장 제조업 생산 %yr/yr 출처: J.P.Morgan, S&P Global. -18 -12 -6 0 6 12 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 PMI Output Index MP Comment Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P. , "세계 제조업 PMI가 9월에 생산량을 기록했고 신규 주문이 더 많은 기반을 잃어 글로벌 산업 생산이 침체에 빠졌음을 시사합니다. 

 

재고 대비 주문 비율은 공장에서 과잉 생산 능력이 계속 건설되면서 지난달 또 다른 수년 최저치로 떨어졌습니다. 지속적인 재고 증가는 수요가 주춤하고 있으며 2H22로 갈수록 활동에 부담이 될 것이라는 우려스러운 신호입니다. 

 

9월 설문조사는 공급망 조건과 노동 시장의 회복력을 개선하는 징후를 포함하여 몇 가지 은벽을 제공했습니다."