차이신 중국 제조업 지수 49.5 안좋음 Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI™ 220930 발표

 

 

 

Business conditions across China's manufacturing sector deteriorated modestly in September, as efforts to contain the COVID-19 virus weighed on performance. Total new business dropped for the second month in a row, which led to a renewed fall in output, while firms also trimmed their purchasing activity and inventories. Reduced demand for inputs placed further downward pressure on prices, with input costs falling at the quickest rate since the start of 2016. Companies often looked to pass on any cost savings to clients to help improve sales, which led to the quickest fall in selling prices since December 2015. The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – declined from 49.5 in August to 48.1 in September, to signal a back-to-back deterioration in the overall health of the sector. The reading was consistent with only a mild rate of contraction, however. A key factor driving the headline index lower was a faster fall in new orders during September. New business fell for the second month in a row, and at the quickest rate since April, with panel members often commenting that restrictions around travel and operations had dampened customer demand. Foreign sales also fell again, and at a solid rate that was the fastest for four months. Disruptions to operations due to COVID-19 restrictions, including temporary closures, alongside softer customer demand led to the first fall in output for four months, albeit one that was only modest. There were also reports of difficulties sourcing inputs due to restrictions around logistics. Subdued demand conditions and lower production requirements led firms to cut back on their purchasing activity in September, with the rate of decline the quickest in four months. Inventories of both purchased and finished goods also fell, though rates of depletion were only marginal. The reduction in operational requirements also impacted employment across the sector, which fell for the sixth month running. Though modest, the rate of decline was the quickest seen since April 2020. There were also reports that some staff were unable to go to their workplace due to COVID-19 restrictions. Although workforce numbers fell, firms reported little pressure on operating capacities, as backlogs of work fell slightly at the end of the third quarter. Panel members often mentioned that reduced intakes of new orders had enabled them to work through outstanding business. Measures to contain the COVID-19 virus also weighed on supplier performance in September. Though only modest, the rate at which lead times lengthened was the most pronounced for three months. Cost pressures continued to ease in September, with a number of firms commenting that market prices for some materials had fallen due to weaker demand. The rate of decrease quickened slightly on the month, and was the fastest seen since January 2016. Companies often looked to pass on lower costs to clients to help stimulate sales, with the rate of discounting accelerating to a solid pace that was the steepest since the end of 2015. Concerns over potential repeated outbreaks of COVID-19 and the prolonged use of containment measures weighed on optimism towards future output. Notably, the level of positive sentiment slipped to its lowest since November 2019. Key findings: Production falls for first time in four months amid quicker drop in sales Firms cut back on purchasing activity and inventories Selling prices fall at quickest rate since December 2015 Sources: Caixin, S&P Global Embargoed until 0945 CST (0145 UTC) 30 September 2022 35 40 45 50 55 60 2004 2022 China General Manufacturing PMI sa, >50 = improvement since previous month 31 Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data, Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI in September fell 1.4 points from the previous month to 48.1, marking the second consecutive month of contraction. Surveyed enterprises said the pandemic was still the greatest factor of impact. “Manufacturing supply and demand contracted simultaneously. Although the Covid situation improved in Hainan province, the severity of outbreaks worsened in many other areas ¬and containment measures limited the supply and demand in manufacturing. “The gauges for production and total new orders were both lower than 50, and recorded new lows in the past four and five months, respectively. External demand also contracted sharply, with the reading for new export orders the lowest since May. “Employment continued to contract, as firms cut staff on weak demand, and some employees couldn’t return to work on time due to Covid controls. In September, the reading for employment fell below 50 for the sixth consecutive month and for the 13th time in the past 14 months. “Price indices continued to fall. With declines in the prices of bulk commodities, especially steel, input costs for producers of intermediate and investment goods fell sharply, and the gauge for input prices sank to the lowest reading since January 2016. “Due to the impact of the market slump, firms, especially investment goods manufacturers, were eager to promote sales by cutting prices. In September, the gauge for output prices remained below 50 for the fifth consecutive month, and recorded the lowest reading since December 2015. “Both purchases and inventories fell. Due to limited market demand, New Export Orders Index Sources: Caixin, S&P Global Employment Index Sources: Caixin, S&P Global manufacturers reduced the volume of purchases and at the same time cut inventories. The readings for quantity of purchases, inventories of purchased items, and stocks of finished goods all remained below 50. Covid controls also affected logistics, and suppliers needed more time to deliver their goods than the previous month. “Entrepreneurs were much less optimistic. The measure for future output expectations, although still in expansionary territory, declined more than 3 points and marked the lowest reading since November 2019. The concerns of surveyed entrepreneurs still stemmed from reoccurring Covid outbreaks and the impact of related controls on the market. “In general, the pandemic situation is still severe and complex, and the negative impact of Covid controls on the economy is still pronounced. In September, supply and demand in the manufacturing industry both contracted, the job market was weak, logistics and transportation were slightly sluggish, cost of production and prices charged continued to decline, and purchases and inventories fell slightly. Market optimism also dwindled significantly due to concerns about the economic outlook. “Recently, there have been more factors that negatively affect economic development and the downward pressure on the economy has increased. Since September, there have been Covid outbreaks in many regions, with the number of confirmed cases shooting up in some key areas compared with the previous month. Demand in the manufacturing industry has been under pressure, while economic recovery has stood on shaky ground. “At present, major problems in the economy are insufficient employment, sluggish demand, and unstable expectations. In view of this, policy implementation should focus on promoting employment, granting subsidies, boosting demand, and fostering market confidence by sending policy signals.”

 

 

 

COVID-19 바이러스를 억제하려는 노력이 실적에 부담을 주면서 9월에 중국 제조업 부문의 비즈니스 상황이 완만하게 악화되었습니다. 총 신규 사업이 2개월 연속 감소하여 생산량이 다시 감소했으며 기업들도 구매 활동과 재고를 줄였습니다. 투입물에 대한 수요 감소는 2016년 초 이후 가장 빠른 속도로 투입물 비용이 하락하면서 가격에 추가 하락 압력을 가했습니다. 기업은 종종 판매 개선을 돕기 위해 비용 절감액을 고객에게 전가하려고 했고, 이는 판매 가격의 가장 빠른 하락으로 이어졌습니다. 2015년 12월부터. 계절 조정된 PMI™(Purchasing Managers' Index™) 헤드라인 - 제조업 경제의 운영 상황에 대한 단일 숫자 스냅샷을 제공하기 위해 고안된 복합 지표 -는 8월 49.5에서 9월 48.1로 하락하여 부문의 전반적인 건강 상태가 연속적으로 악화됩니다. 그러나 판독값은 약간의 수축률과 일치했습니다. 헤드라인 지수를 낮추는 주요 요인은 9월 신규 주문의 빠른 감소였습니다. 신규 사업은 4월 이후 가장 빠른 속도로 2개월 연속 감소했으며, 패널 회원들은 여행 및 운영에 대한 제한이 고객 수요를 위축시켰다고 종종 언급했습니다. 해외 매출도 다시 하락해 4개월 만에 가장 빠른 견조한 속도로 떨어졌다. 임시 폐쇄를 포함한 COVID-19 제한으로 인한 운영 중단과 고객 수요 감소로 인해 4개월 동안 생산량이 처음 감소했습니다. 또한 물류 관련 제한으로 인해 투입물을 조달하는 데 어려움이 있다는 보고도 있었습니다. 침체된 수요 조건과 낮은 생산 요구 사항으로 인해 기업들은 9월 구매 활동을 축소했으며, 감소 속도는 4개월 만에 가장 빨랐습니다. 고갈률은 미미했지만 구매 및 완제품의 재고도 감소했습니다. 운영 요구 사항의 감소는 또한 6개월 연속 감소한 부문 전체의 고용에 영향을 미쳤습니다. 소폭 감소하긴 했지만 감소폭은 2020년 4월 이후 가장 빨랐다. 코로나19로 인해 일부 직원이 출근하지 못했다는 보고도 나왔다. 노동력 수는 감소했지만 기업들은 3분기 말에 작업 잔고가 약간 감소했기 때문에 운영 능력에 대한 압박이 거의 없다고 보고했습니다. 패널 멤버들은 신규 주문의 감소로 인해 뛰어난 비즈니스를 수행할 수 있었다고 자주 언급했습니다. COVID-19 바이러스를 억제하기 위한 조치는 9월 공급업체 실적에도 영향을 미쳤습니다. 미미하지만 리드 타임이 길어진 비율은 3개월 동안 가장 두드러졌습니다. 비용 압박은 9월에도 계속 완화되었으며, 많은 기업들이 수요 감소로 인해 일부 재료의 시장 가격이 하락했다고 언급했습니다. 감소율은 이 달에 약간 빨라졌으며 2016년 1월 이후 가장 빠른 것이었습니다. 기업들은 종종 판매 촉진을 위해 더 낮은 비용을 고객에게 전가하려고 했으며, 할인율은 이후 가장 가파른 속도로 가속화되었습니다. COVID-19의 반복적인 발병 가능성에 대한 우려와 봉쇄 조치의 장기간 사용이 미래 생산량에 대한 낙관론을 짓눌렀습니다. 특히 긍정적인 심리 수준은 2019년 11월 이후 최저 수준으로 떨어졌습니다. 주요 조사 결과: 판매 감소 속도가 빨라짐에 따라 생산량이 4개월 만에 처음으로 감소 기업 구매 활동 및 재고 축소 판매 가격은 2015년 12월 이후 가장 빠른 속도로 하락 출처: Caixin, S&P 글로벌 수출 금지 0945 CST(0145 UTC) 2022년 9월 30일 35 40 45 50 55 60 2004 2022 중국 일반 제조업 PMI sa, >50 = 전월 대비 개선 31 중국 일반 제조업 PMI™ 데이터에 대해 Dr. Caixin Insight Group의 수석 이코노미스트 Zhe는 “9월 Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI는 전월보다 1.4포인트 하락한 48.1로 2개월 연속 하락세를 기록했습니다. 설문조사에 응한 기업들은 대유행이 여전히 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 요인이라고 말했습니다. “제조업은 수요와 공급이 동시에 위축된다. 하이난성에서 코로나19 상황이 개선되었지만 다른 많은 지역에서 발병의 심각성이 악화되었고 봉쇄 조치로 인해 제조업의 수급이 제한되었습니다. “생산 및 총 신규 주문에 대한 게이지는 모두 50 미만이었고 지난 4개월 및 5개월 동안 각각 새로운 최저치를 기록했습니다. 외부 수요도 급격히 위축되어 신규 수출 주문이 5월 이후 최저치를 기록했습니다. “기업이 수요가 약해 직원을 감축하고 일부 직원은 코로나 바이러스 통제로 인해 제시간에 직장에 복귀하지 못하면서 고용이 계속 줄어들었습니다. 9월 고용지표는 6개월 연속, 과거 13번째 50선 아래로 떨어졌다.

“물가지수는 계속 하락했습니다. 벌크 상품, 특히 철강의 가격 하락으로 중간재 및 투자재 생산자의 투입 비용이 급격히 떨어졌고 투입 가격 게이지가 2016년 1월 이후 최저 수준으로 떨어졌습니다. “시장 침체의 영향으로 기업들이 특히 투자 상품 제조업체들은 가격 인하를 통해 판매 촉진에 열심이었다. 9월 생산물가 게이지는 5개월 연속 50선을 하회하며 2015년 12월 이후 최저치를 기록했다. “구매와 재고가 모두 하락했다. 제한된 시장 수요로 인해 New Export Orders Index 출처: Caixin, S&P Global Employment Index 출처: Caixin, S&P Global 제조업체는 구매량을 줄이는 동시에 재고를 줄였습니다. 구매 수량, 구매 품목 재고 및 완제품 재고는 모두 50 미만을 유지했습니다. 코로나바이러스 통제도 물류에 영향을 미쳤으며 공급업체는 전월보다 상품을 배송하는 데 더 많은 시간이 필요했습니다. “기업가들은 훨씬 덜 낙관적이었습니다. 여전히 확장 영역에 있지만 미래 생산량 기대치에 대한 측정은 3포인트 이상 하락했으며 2019년 11월 이후 가장 낮은 수치를 기록했습니다. 설문에 참여한 기업가들의 우려는 여전히 재발하는 Covid 발병과 관련 통제가 시장에 미치는 영향에서 비롯되었습니다. “일반적으로 팬데믹 상황은 여전히 ​​심각하고 복잡하며 코로나19 통제가 경제에 미치는 부정적인 영향은 여전히 ​​뚜렷합니다. 9월에는 제조업의 수급이 모두 위축되었고, 고용 시장이 약세를 보였고, 물류 및 운송이 약간 부진했으며, 생산 비용과 부과 가격이 계속 하락했으며 구매 및 재고가 소폭 하락했습니다. 경기 전망에 대한 우려로 시장 낙관론도 크게 떨어졌다. “최근에는 경제발전에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 요인이 많아지고 경제에 대한 하방압력이 커졌습니다. 9월 이후 많은 지역에서 코로나19 발병이 발생했으며 일부 주요 지역에서 확인된 사례 수가 전월에 비해 급증했습니다. 제조업의 수요는 압박을 받고 있는 반면, 경기 회복은 불안정한 상태에 있습니다. “현재 경제의 주요 문제는 불충분한 고용, 부진한 수요, 불안정한 기대입니다. 이에 따라 정책적 신호를 보내 고용촉진, 보조금 지급, 수요증대, 시장신뢰도 제고에 초점을 맞춰 정책을 추진해야 한다”고 말했다.