S&P Global Flash Germany PMI 24 October 2022 Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI(3) at 45.7 (Sep: 47.8). 28-month low

 

 

Key findings: Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 44.1 (Sep: 45.7). 29-month low. Flash Germany Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 44.9 (Sep: 45.0). 29-month low. Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 42.5 (Sep: 47.0). 29-month low. Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI (3) at 45.7 (Sep: 47.8). 28-month low. Data were collected 12-20 October The downturn in the German economy deepened at the start of the final quarter of 2022, latest ‘flash’ PMI® data from S&P Global showed. Business activity fell for the fourth month running and at an accelerated rate, amid reports of the detrimental impact of high energy prices on both business costs and demand. Firms’ expectations remained deeply negative, reflecting concerns over persistently strong inflationary pressures, rising interest rates and the prospect of a recession. The survey did, however, point to ongoing resilience in the labour market. The headline S&P Global Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index fell deeper into contraction territory in October, dropping from September’s 45.7 to 44.1. This was its lowest reading since the initial COVID-19 shutdowns in early-2020. The deterioration was broad-based by sector and led by manufacturing, where the rate of contraction in output accelerated notably to the quickest for nearly two-and-half years (index at 42.5 from 47.0). High energy costs were a factor weighing on factory production, according to anecdotal evidence, alongside a sustained weakening of underlying demand for goods. Services activity fell at a rate that was only fractionally quicker than in September (index at 44.9 from 45.0), but one that was nevertheless the fastest overall since May 2020. High price pressures, rising interest rates, and growing hesitancy among customers due to recession fears all acted to supress demand, reports from surveyed firms showed. Both manufacturing and services saw the weakest trends in new business since May 2020 S&P Global Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index (including faster decreases in new work from abroad), although it was the former that recorded the steeper rates of contraction by far. The loss of new business was reflected in a sustained decline in backlogs of work across Germany’s private sector. October’s decrease was the third in as many months and the most marked since June 2020, led by a steep and accelerated reduction across manufacturing. Despite signs of business capacity pressures easing, October data highlighted a further broad-based rise in employment as firms continued to fill vacancies. The rate of job creation even ticked up slightly, driven by a faster increase in manufacturing workforce numbers. That said, it was still the second-slowest in over a year-and-a-half, with service sector job creation dropping to the lowest seen since September 2020. Businesses across Germany continued to face sharp cost pressures at the start of the fourth quarter, with the rate of input price inflation remaining well above its historical series average. It ticked down from September’s threemonth high, however, due in large part to a slower rise in manufacturing costs, which was in turn a reflection of a further alleviation of supply-chain pressures. The incidence of delays on purchases was in fact the lowest since August 2020. Conversely, service sector input cost inflation was littlechanged since September and remained among the fastest on record, with surveyed firms widely commenting on the influence of higher wage bills as well as increased energy costs. News Release Copyright © 2022 S&P Global The pass-through of higher operating expenses by businesses to their customers led to a further sharp rise in average prices charged for goods and services in October. With both monitored sectors recording similarly sharp, albeit slightly slower increases in output prices, the rate of inflation remained historically elevated but ticked down from September’s three-month high. German businesses remained deeply pessimistic towards the year-ahead outlook for activity in October. Firms’ concerns were centred around soaring energy costs, high inflation, rising interest rates, and the prospect of recession, both in the domestic market and further afield. Whereas service providers were less downbeat than the month before, which saw overall expectations increase slightly from September’s 28-month low, manufacturing confidence fell notably and was only just above the recordlow levels recorded during the initial COVID-19 shock in early-2020. S&P Global Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI Commenting on the flash PMI data, Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The flash PMI data show the downturn in German business activity gathering pace at the start of the fourth quarter, adding to the growing signs of an impending recession in the eurozone’s largest economy. “We’re seeing weakness across the board in the survey data, with both the manufacturing and service sectors reporting accelerating rates of contraction, led by rapidly declining inflows of new work. Businesses are reporting a growing reluctance amongst clients due to increased strain on budgets and an uncertain economic outlook, with high energy costs compounding the situation by fuelling inflationary pressures and directly impacting factory production in some cases. “Notwithstanding the downturn in activity and deeply negative business expectations, employment levels are yet to fall, pointing to resilience in the German labour market. Firms are showing a willingness to retain staff, and even continue to fill vacancies in some cases, despite facing sharply rising costs – including wage pressures – and the growing prospect of a recession.” -Ends

 

 

 

주요 조사 결과: Flash Germany PMI 종합 산출 지수(1) 44.1(9월: 45.7). 29개월 최저치. Flash 독일 서비스 PMI 활동 지수(2) at 44.9(9월: 45.0). 29개월 최저치. Flash 독일 제조업 생산 지수(4) at 42.5(9월: 47.0). 29개월 최저치. Flash 독일 제조업 PMI(3) at 45.7(9월: 47.8). 28개월 최저치. 데이터 수집 10월 12-20일 S&P Global의 최신 '플래시' PMI® 데이터에 따르면 독일 경제의 침체는 2022년 4분기 초에 심화되었습니다. 비즈니스 활동은 높은 에너지 가격이 비즈니스 비용과 수요 모두에 해로운 영향을 미친다는 보고가 있는 가운데 4개월 연속 하락세를 보였습니다. 기업의 기대치는 지속적으로 강한 인플레이션 압력, 금리 인상 및 경기 침체 전망에 대한 우려를 반영하여 매우 부정적인 상태를 유지했습니다. 그러나 설문 조사는 노동 시장의 지속적인 회복력을 지적했습니다. S&P 글로벌 플래시 독일 PMI 종합 산출 지수(S&P Global Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index)는 9월 45.7에서 44.1로 하락하면서 10월 수축 영역에 더 깊이 빠졌다. 이는 2020년 초 코로나19 초기 폐쇄 이후 가장 낮은 수치다. 악화는 부문별로 광범위하게 나타났으며 제조업이 주도했으며, 생산 위축 속도가 거의 2년 반 동안 가장 빠르게 가속화되었습니다(47.0에서 42.5로 지수). 일화적인 증거에 따르면 높은 에너지 비용은 기본 상품 수요의 지속적인 약화와 함께 공장 생산에 부담을 주는 요소였습니다. 서비스 활동은 9월(45.0에서 44.9로 지수)보다 매우 빠른 속도로 하락했지만 그럼에도 불구하고 2020년 5월 이후 전반적으로 가장 빠른 속도였습니다. 높은 가격 압력, 상승하는 이자율 및 경기 침체로 인한 고객의 주저함 증가 설문 조사 기업의 보고서에 따르면 모든 두려움이 수요를 억제하는 것으로 나타났습니다. 제조업과 서비스업 모두 2020년 5월 이후 신규 사업에서 가장 약한 추세를 보였습니다. S&P Global Flash Germany PMI 종합 산출 지수(해외 신규 작업의 더 빠른 감소 포함)는 훨씬 더 가파른 수축률을 기록한 것은 전자였습니다. 

 

신규 사업의 ​​손실은 독일 민간 부문 전반에 걸친 업무 백로그의 지속적인 감소에 반영되었습니다. 

 

10월의 감소는 수개월 만에 세 번째였으며 2020년 6월 이후 가장 두드러졌으며 제조 전반에 걸쳐 가파르고 가속화된 감소를 주도했습니다. 사업 역량 압박이 완화되는 조짐에도 불구하고, 10월 데이터는 기업들이 공석을 계속 채우면서 고용이 더욱 광범위하게 증가했음을 강조했습니다. 고용 창출 속도는 제조업 인력 수의 빠른 증가에 힘입어 소폭 상승했습니다. 하지만 서비스 부문 일자리 창출이 2020년 9월 이후 최저 수준으로 하락하면서 1년 반 동안 여전히 두 번째로 느린 속도였습니다. 입력 가격 인플레이션 비율은 역사적 시리즈 평균보다 훨씬 높은 수준을 유지하고 있습니다. 그러나 이는 9월의 3개월 최고치에서 하락했는데, 이는 대체로 제조 비용 상승 속도가 느려 공급망 압력이 더 완화되었음을 반영했기 때문입니다. 실제로 구매 지연 발생률은 2020년 8월 이후 가장 낮았습니다. 반대로 서비스 부문의 투입 비용 인플레이션은 9월 이후 거의 변화가 없었으며 조사 대상 기업이 임금 인상의 영향에 대해서도 광범위하게 언급하면서 기록상 가장 빠른 것 중 하나였습니다. 에너지 비용이 증가했기 때문입니다. 기업의 더 높은 운영 비용이 고객에게 전가되면서 10월에 상품 및 서비스에 부과되는 평균 가격이 더욱 급격히 상승했습니다.

 

모니터링되는 두 부문 모두 생산량 가격의 약간 느린 증가에도 불구하고 유사한 급격한 상승을 기록하면서 인플레이션율은 역사적으로 높은 수준을 유지했지만 9월의 3개월 최고치에서 하락했습니다.

 

독일 기업들은 10월 활동에 대한 1년 전 전망에 대해 매우 비관적이었습니다. 기업들의 우려는 치솟는 에너지 비용, 높은 인플레이션, 금리 인상, 국내 시장은 물론 더 멀리 떨어진 경기 침체 전망에 집중되었습니다. 서비스 제공업체들은 9월의 28개월 최저치에서 전반적인 기대치가 소폭 상승한 전월보다 덜 낙관적이었지만, 제조 신뢰는 현저하게 떨어졌으며 2020년 초 초기 COVID-19 충격 동안 기록된 최저 수준을 약간 웃돌았습니다. . S&P 글로벌 플래시 독일 제조업 PMI 플래시 PMI 데이터에 대해 S&P 글로벌 마켓 인텔리전스의 필 스미스 경제학 부국장은 “플래시 PMI 데이터는 4분기 초 독일 기업 활동의 침체를 보여주고 있다. 유로존의 가장 큰 경제에 임박한 경기 침체의 징후가 커지고 있습니다. "제조업과 서비스업 모두의 보고서와 함께 설문조사 데이터에서 전반적으로 약점을 보고 있습니다.

 

새로운 작업의 유입이 급격히 감소함에 따라 수축 속도가 가속화됩니다. 

 

기업들은 예산에 대한 부담 증가와 불확실한 경제 전망으로 인해 고객 사이에서 점점 더 주저하고 있다고 보고하고 있으며, 높은 에너지 비용은 인플레이션 압력을 가중시키고 경우에 따라 공장 생산에 직접적인 영향을 주어 상황을 악화시킵니다. “활동의 침체와 매우 부정적인 비즈니스 기대에도 불구하고 고용 수준은 아직 떨어지지 않고 있으며 이는 독일 노동 시장의 회복력을 나타냅니다. 기업들은 임금 압박을 포함하여 비용이 급격히 상승하고 경기 침체가 증가할 것이라는 전망에도 불구하고 직원을 유지하고 어떤 경우에는 계속해서 공석을 채울 의향을 보이고 있습니다.” -끝