J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ 49.4 Global manufacturing production falls again as neworders contract at quickest pace in 28 months 2 Nov 2022

 

 

 

Global Manufacturing PMI at 49.4 in October Downturn in output centred on intermediate goods sector Business optimism drops to near two-and-ahalf year low

 

The October PMI surveys signalled a third successive monthly contraction in global manufacturing production. The latest decline in output was driven by weaker intakes of new business, deteriorating international trade flows and lower business confidence. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and S&P Global in association with ISM and IFPSM – fell to a 28-month low of 49.4 in October and remained below the neutral 50.0 mark for the second successive month. Two of the five PMI components – new orders and output – had greater negative effects on its level. Although indices tracking trends in employment and supplier lead times had a positive influence overall, these were to lesser extents than in the prior survey month. Output data broken down by sector indicated that the downturn was concentrated in the intermediate goods category. Excluding the early months of the global pandemic, the latest contraction in intermediate goods production was the steepest in close to 11 years. In contrast, output rose in both the consumer and investment goods sub-industries. China, the euro area and Japan were among the larger manufacturing economies to see output contract during October. Although production rose in the US, the rate of expansion was again only slight. The outlook for production also deteriorated in October. Manufacturing business optimism about the year ahead and the cyclically sensitive new orders-to-finished goods inventory ratio both dropped to near two-and-a-half year lows. Positive sentiment weakened in the US and the UK, but improved in China and Japan. Eurozone manufacturers forecast that their output would contract (on average) over the coming year.