Manufacturing PMI® at 50.9%September 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

 

 

ismpmi202209September.pdf

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New Orders and Employment Contracting
Production and Backlogs Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slowing at a Slower Rate
Raw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers’ Inventories Too Low
Prices Increasing at a Slower Rate; Exports Contracting; Imports Growing

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September, with the overall economy achieving a 28th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The September Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.9 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 52.8 percent recorded in August. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 28th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index returned to contraction territory at 47.1 percent, 4.2 percentage points lower than the 51.3 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 50.6 percent is a 0.2-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 50.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 51.7 percent, down 0.8 percentage point compared to the August figure of 52.5 percent. This is the index’s lowest reading since June 2020 (51.3 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 50.9 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than the August reading of 53 percent. After a single month of expansion, the Employment Index contracted at 48.7 percent, 5.5 percentage points lower than the 54.2 percent recorded in August. The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 52.4 percent is 2.7 percentage points lower than the August figure of 55.1 percent. This is the index’s lowest reading since before the coronavirus pandemic (52.2 percent in December 2019). The Inventories Index registered 55.5 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the August reading of 53.1 percent. The New Export Orders Index contracted at 47.8 percent, down 1.6 percentage points compared to August’s figure of 49.4 percent. This is the index’s lowest reading since June 2020, when it registered 47.6 percent. The Imports Index remained in expansion territory at 52.6 percent, 0.1 percentage point above the August reading of 52.5 percent.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to expand, but at the lowest rate since the pandemic recovery began. Following four straight months of panelists’ companies reporting softening new orders rates, the September index reading reflects companies adjusting to potential future lower demand. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index returning to contraction, (2) New Export Orders Index in contraction for a second consecutive month, (3) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining at a low level but as close as it’s been to an ‘about right’ reading since early in the pandemic and (4) Backlog of Orders Index approaching contraction. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) declined during the period, with a combined negative 5.3-percentage point impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index returned to contraction after one month of expansion, and the Production Index increased by 0.2 percentage point, staying in growth territory, but at a modest level. Many Business Survey Committee panelists’ companies are now managing head counts through hiring freezes and attrition to lower levels, with medium- and long-term demand more uncertain. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — accommodated growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index reached an appropriate tension level, and the Inventories Index increased as panelists’ companies continued to manage the total supply chain inventory. The Prices Index decreased for a sixth straight month and is not far from contraction territory, and the Imports Index modestly grew.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, four — Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — registered moderate-to-strong growth in September.

“Manufacturing expanded for the 28th straight month. Panelists' companies slowed hiring activity; month-over-month supplier delivery performance was the best since December 2019; prices growth slowed notably (with the index at 60 percent or lower) for the third consecutive month; and lead times continue to ease for capital equipment and production materials. Markedly absent from panelists’ comments was any large-scale mentioning of layoffs; this indicates companies are confident of near-term demand, so primary goals are managing medium-term head counts and supply chain inventories,” says Fiore.

Nine manufacturing industries reported growth in September, in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The seven industries reporting contraction in September compared to August, in the following order are: Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Supply chain issues for all electronic components and custom build-to-print materials are in short supply due to capacity and skilled labor shortages. Energy cost continues to negatively impact freight cost.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
• “Concerns of global economic slowdown are growing, and (we are) experiencing some customers pulling back orders.” [Chemical Products]
• “Production is steady, allowing reduction of backlog amidst slightly softened demand.” [Transportation Equipment]
• “Almost all suppliers are experiencing lead times growth. It seems no one wants to keep inventory on hand anymore.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
• “Business is flat to down due to inflation and interest rates. Hard to find and keep employees due to wage increases by competitors.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
• “Supply chain constraints on many items are still an issue; staffing on the production side continues to be a significant problem. In contrast, we have more stock than needed on some key items — specifically imports — and have begun reducing open purchase orders and decreasing extended forecasts on those items in order to bleed down inventory.” [Machinery]
• “Business continues to be strong. Some commodities within the supply chain are starting to stabilize, while others are still causing disruption for production. Electrical and wiring components continue to cause significant issues. (We) cannot run as consistently as we would like.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
• “Quotes and orders still strong; however, we are not able to accept any new orders for shipment (for the rest of) 2022 due to motor and electronic component shortages.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
• “The supply chain is still stressed, and it challenges our manufacturing plants for uptime. We have strong demand and need to run.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
• “Business is still strong; raw materials are becoming more available, and some raw materials prices are falling.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
September 2022

IndexSeries Index SepSeries Index AugPercentage Point ChangeDirectionRate of ChangeTrend* (Months)Manufacturing PMI®New OrdersProductionEmploymentSupplier DeliveriesInventoriesCustomers’ InventoriesPricesBacklog of OrdersNew Export OrdersImportsOVERALL ECONOMYManufacturing Sector

50.9	52.8	-1.9	Growing	Slower	28
47.1	51.3	-4.2	Contracting	From Growing	1
50.6	50.4	+0.2	Growing	Faster	28
48.7	54.2	-5.5	Contracting	From Growing	1
52.4	55.1	-2.7	Slowing	Slower	79
55.5	53.1	+2.4	Growing	Faster	14
41.6	38.9	+2.7	Too Low	Slower	72
51.7	52.5	-0.8	Increasing	Slower	28
50.9	53.0	-2.1	Growing	Slower	27
47.8	49.4	-1.6	Contracting	Faster	2
52.6	52.5	+0.1	Growing	Faster	4
Growing	Slower	28
Growing	Slower	28

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

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Adhesives; Copper; Diesel*; Electrical Components (22); Electricity; Electronic Components (22); Freight* (23); Hydraulic Components (2); Labor — Temporary; Natural Gas (15); Paint; Paper (2); Plastic Resins* (9); Rubber Based Products (14); Semiconductors; and Steel — Stainless*.

Commodities Down in Price

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Aluminum (5); Diesel*; Freight* (2); High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Resin; Lumber — Hardwood; Lumber — Softwood; Methanol; Ocean Freight; Plastic Resins* (4); Polyethylene; Polypropylene (2); Steel (5); Steel — Carbon (3); Steel — Hot Rolled (5); Steel — Stainless* (2); and Steel Products (3).

Commodities in Short Supply

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Electrical Components (24); Electronic Components (22); Hydraulic Components (5); Labor — Temporary; Rubber Based Products (4); Semiconductors (22); and Wire Harnesses (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

*Indicates both up and down in price.

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SEPTEMBER 2022 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

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MANUFACTURING PMI®

The U.S. manufacturing sector grew in September, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.9 percent, 1.9 percentage points below the reading of 52.8 percent recorded in August. “The Manufacturing PMI® continued to indicate sector expansion and U.S. economic growth in September. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, three (Production, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) were in growth territory. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, four — Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — registered moderate-to-strong growth in September. The Production Index increased 0.2 percentage point and remained in expansion territory. The Supplier Deliveries Index slowed at a slower rate while the Inventories Index grew at a faster rate, indicating continued easing of supply chain congestion. Seven of the 10 subindexes were positive for the period; a reading of ‘too low’ for the Customers’ Inventories Index is considered a positive for future production,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew in September for the 28th consecutive month following contraction in April and May 2020. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for September (50.9 percent) corresponds to a 0.8-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

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MonthManufacturing PMI®Sep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022May 2022Apr 2022

50.9

52.8

52.8

53.0

56.1

55.4

MonthManufacturing PMI®Mar 2022Feb 2022Jan 2022Dec 2021Nov 2021Oct 2021

57.1

58.6

57.6

58.8

60.6

60.8

Average for 12 months - 56.2
High - 60.8
Low - 50.9

NEW ORDERS

ISM®’s New Orders Index decreased 4.2 percentage points in September to 47.1 percent compared to 51.3 percent reported in August. This indicates that new order volumes fell back into contraction after one month of expansion. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, three —Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery — increased new orders at a moderate level. The index achieved its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 32.3 percent. Capital Expenditures and Production Materials lead times remained elevated but have contracted 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively, over the last several months,” says Fiore. (For more on lead times, see the Buying Policy section of this report.) A New Orders Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, five reported growth in new orders in September: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. Eleven industries reported a decline in new orders in September, in the following order: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

New Orders% Higher% Same% LowerNetIndexSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

16.0	62.8	21.2	-5.2	47.1
17.5	63.1	19.4	-1.9	51.3
17.2	63.0	19.8	-2.6	48.0
17.8	65.1	17.1	+0.7	49.2

PRODUCTION

The Production Index registered 50.6 percent in September, 0.2 percentage point higher than the August reading of 50.4 percent, indicating growth for the 28th consecutive month. “Of the top six industries, only two — Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products — expanded in September. Materials availability and the labor pool continue to recover, but there is concern about demand beyond the near term,” says Fiore. An index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The eight industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting a decrease in production in September — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Production% Higher% Same% LowerNetIndexSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

17.5	64.3	18.2	-0.7	50.6
17.6	65.4	17.0	+0.6	50.4
24.9	58.5	16.6	+8.3	53.5
27.4	60.9	11.7	+15.7	54.9

EMPLOYMENT

ISM®’s Employment Index registered 48.7 percent in September, 5.5 percentage points lower than the August reading of 54.2 percent. “The index returned to contraction territory after one month of expansion. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, two (Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) expanded. Labor management sentiment shifted in September, with a higher number of panelists’ companies pausing hiring through hiring freezes and allowing attrition to reduce employment levels. Turnover rates eased, with 28 percent of comments citing backfill and retirement issues, a decrease from 33 percent in August,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, six reported employment growth in September, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in employment in September — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment.

Employment% Higher% Same% LowerNetIndexSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

17.5	60.3	22.2	-4.7	48.7
19.3	68.3	12.4	+6.9	54.2
22.0	59.4	18.6	+3.4	49.9
17.9	63.7	18.4	-0.5	47.3

SUPPLIER DELIVERIES*

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in September, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.4 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent reported in August. Of the top six manufacturing industries, four (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products) reported slower deliveries. “This indicates the best month-over-month supplier deliveries performance since December 2019, when the index registered 52.2 percent. In September, 83.2 percent of panelists reported ‘same’ or ‘faster’ deliveries, compared to 80.4 percent in August. Panelists’ comments reiterate that suppliers performed better in September compared to previous months,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Ten manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in September, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. Four industries reported faster supplier deliveries in September as compared to August: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Supplier Deliveries% Slower% Same% FasterNetIndexSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

16.8	71.2	12.0	+4.8	52.4
19.6	71.0	9.4	+10.2	55.1
21.4	67.6	11.0	+10.4	55.2
27.4	59.8	12.8	+14.6	57.3

INVENTORIES

The Inventories Index registered 55.5 percent in September, 2.4 percentage points higher than the 53.1 percent reported for August. “Manufacturing inventories expanded at a faster rate compared to August. Of the six big manufacturing industries, five (Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products) grew manufacturing raw material inventories in September. Panelists’ companies continue to aggressively manage total supply chain inventories through a pausing of order placement in response to slowing in new order rates,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the 11 reporting higher inventories in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The four industries reporting contracting inventories in September are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Inventories% Higher% Same% LowerNetIndexSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

23.0	64.9	12.1	+10.9	55.5
23.2	62.9	13.9	+9.3	53.1
25.5	61.8	12.7	+12.8	57.3
25.4	59.8	14.8	+10.6	56.0

CUSTOMERS' INVENTORIES*

ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 41.6 percent in September, 2.7 percentage points higher than the 38.9 percent reported for August, indicating that customers’ inventory levels were considered too low. “Customers’ inventories are too low for the 72nd month in a row, a positive for future production growth. The index registered above 40 percent for the first time after spending 25 consecutive months below that level,” says Fiore.

Three industries (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; and Furniture & Related Products) reported customers’ inventories as too high in September. The 11 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Customers' Inventories% Reporting% Too High% About Right% Too LowNetIndexSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

73	13.5	56.1	30.4	-16.9	41.6
75	12.2	53.4	34.4	-22.2	38.9
78	12.4	54.2	33.4	-21.0	39.5
75	11.1	48.1	40.8	-29.7	35.2

PRICES*

The ISM® Prices Index registered 51.7 percent in September, 0.8 percentage point lower compared to the August reading of 52.5 percent, indicating raw materials prices increased for the 28th consecutive month, at a slower rate. This is the second consecutive month the Prices Index registered below 60 percent, a level not seen since August 2020 (59.5 percent), and this is also the lowest reading since June 2020 (51.3 percent). Over the past six months, the index has decreased 35.4 percentage points, including a combined 26-percentage point plunge in July and August. “The slowing in price increases is being driven by continued (1) relaxation in the energy markets, (2) softening in the copper, steel, aluminum and corrugate markets and (3) continuing sluggishness in chemical and plastics demand. Notably, 28.1 percent of respondents reported paying lower prices in September, compared to 26.7 percent in August,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In September, 10 of 18 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in the following order: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The seven industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Prices% Higher% Same% LowerNetIndexSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

31.4	40.5	28.1	+3.3	51.7
31.7	41.6	26.7	+5.0	52.5
41.5	37.0	21.5	+20.0	60.0
65.2	26.5	8.3	+56.9	78.5

BACKLOG OF ORDERS*

ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 50.9 percent in September, a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to the 53 percent reported in August, indicating order backlogs expanded for the 27th straight month. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, four — Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — expanded their order backlogs. “Backlogs expanded in September at a slower rate as the New Orders Index level fell, and production expanded minimally in the period. A slowing in price increases is a positive for future new orders growth and backlogs expansion,” says Fiore.

Eight industries reported growth in order backlogs in September, in the following order: Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Eight industries reported lower backlogs in September, in the following order: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

Backlog of Orders% Reporting% Higher% Same% LowerNetIndexSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

90	25.5	50.8	23.7	+1.8	50.9
93	24.6	56.7	18.7	+5.9	53.0
92	26.6	49.4	24.0	+2.6	51.3
93	25.6	55.3	19.1	+6.5	53.2

NEW EXPORT ORDERS*

ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 47.8 percent in September, 1.6 percentage points below the August reading of 49.4 percent. “The New Export Orders Index contracted in September for the second consecutive month after 25 consecutive months in expansion territory. Weakness in European economies and China’s economic sluggishness continue to constrain new export orders and are having a negative influence on new order rates,” says Fiore.

Three industries reported growth in new export orders in September: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. The eight industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.

New Export Orders% Reporting% Higher% Same% LowerNetIndexSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

72	9.4	76.7	13.9	-4.5	47.8
75	9.9	79.0	11.1	-1.2	49.4
73	16.6	72.1	11.3	+5.3	52.6
72	12.3	76.8	10.9	+1.4	50.7

IMPORTS*

ISM®’s Imports Index registered 52.6 percent in September, an increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to August’s figure of 52.5 percent. “Imports grew in September at marginal rates consistent with August. Port issues have become less of an issue for panelists’ companies,” says Fiore.

The eight industries reporting growth in imports in September — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Three industries reported lower volumes of imports in September: Wood Products; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. Seven industries reported no change in imports in September.

Imports% Reporting% Higher% Same% LowerNetIndexSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

83	15.2	74.8	10.0	+5.2	52.6
83	15.6	73.8	10.6	+5.0	52.5
85	19.6	69.5	10.9	+8.7	54.4
84	14.4	72.5	13.1	+1.3	50.7

*The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

BUYING POLICY

The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in September was 178 days, a decrease of two days compared to August. Average lead time in September for Production Materials was 94 days, a decrease of two days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies increased by two days, to 48 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital ExpendituresHand-to-Mouth30 Days60 Days90 Days6 Months1 Year +Average DaysSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

16	5	7	11	32	29	178
18	5	6	11	29	31	180
14	3	10	13	29	31	183
15	6	7	9	31	32	186

Percent Reporting

Production MaterialsHand-to-Mouth30 Days60 Days90 Days6 Months1 Year +Average DaysSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

9	24	24	22	13	8	94
7	22	24	25	15	7	96
8	21	21	28	13	9	100
8	19	23	25	18	7	100

Percent Reporting

MRO SuppliesHand-to-Mouth30 Days60 Days90 Days6 Months1 Year +Average DaysSep 2022Aug 2022Jul 2022Jun 2022

26	35	19	15	4	1	48
26	34	21	14	5	0	46
22	36	21	15	5	1	51
25	39	19	12	5	0	44

About This Report

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DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of September 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

 

 

 

 

신규 주문 및 고용 계약 생산 및 잔고 증가 공급업체 납품 감소 속도 둔화 원자재 재고 증가; 고객의 재고가 너무 낮은 가격이 느린 속도로 증가하고 있습니다. 수출 계약; 수입 증가세(애리조나주 템피) — 9월에 제조업 부문의 경제 활동이 증가했으며 전체 경제가 28개월 연속 성장을 달성했다고 최근 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®에서 미국 공급 담당 임원이 말했습니다. 이 보고서는 오늘 ISM®(Institute for Supply Management®) 제조 비즈니스 조사 위원회 의장인 Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M이 발행했습니다. 8월에 녹음했습니다. 이 수치는 2020년 4월과 5월의 위축 이후 28개월 연속 전체 경제의 확장을 나타냅니다. 제조업 PMI® 수치는 43.5%를 기록한 2020년 5월 이후 가장 낮습니다. 신규 주문 지수는 47.1%로 8월의 51.3%보다 4.2%포인트 하락한 수축 영역으로 돌아왔다. 생산지수 50.6%는 8월의 50.4%보다 0.2%포인트 상승한 수치다. 물가지수는 51.7%로 8월의 52.5%보다 0.8%p 하락했다. 이는 2020년 6월(51.3%) 이후 가장 낮은 수치다. 수주잔고지수는 50.9%로 8월의 53%보다 2.1%포인트 낮았다. 확장 한 달 후 고용 지수는 48.7%로 축소되어 8월의 54.2%보다 5.5%포인트 하락했습니다. 공급업체 인도 지수(Supplier Delivery Index) 판독값 52.4%는 8월 수치인 55.1%보다 2.7% 포인트 낮습니다. 이는 코로나19 팬데믹(2019년 12월 52.2%) 이후 가장 낮은 수치다. 재고지수는 55.5%로 8월의 53.1%보다 2.4%포인트 상승했다. 신규수출주문지수는 47.8%로 8월의 49.4%보다 1.6%p 하락했다. 이는 2020년 6월 47.6%를 기록한 이후 가장 낮은 수치다. 수입 지수는 52.6%로 확장 영역에 머물렀는데, 이는 8월 수치인 52.5%보다 0.1%포인트 높다." Fiore는 계속해서 “미국 제조업 부문은 계속해서 확장하고 있지만 팬데믹 회복이 시작된 이후 가장 낮은 비율입니다. 패널리스트 기업이 4개월 연속 신규 주문률 감소를 보고한 후 9월 지수 판독값은 기업이 미래의 잠재적 수요 감소에 적응하고 있음을 반영합니다. (1) 신규수주지수가 다시 위축, (2) 신규수출수주지수가 2개월 연속 축소, (3) 고객재고지수가 낮은 수준을 유지하면서 예전 수준에 근접한 수요 완화 대유행 초기부터 '대략 맞는' 읽기 및 (4) 수축에 접근하는 주문 백로그. 소비(생산 및 고용 지수로 측정)는 이 기간 동안 감소했으며, 제조업 PMI® 계산에 마이너스 5.3% 포인트 영향을 미쳤습니다. 고용지수는 확장 1개월 만에 다시 수축으로 돌아갔고, 생산지수는 0.2%포인트 상승해 성장 영역에 머물렀지만 소폭 수준에 머물렀다. 많은 비즈니스 조사 위원회 패널리스트의 회사는 현재 중장기 수요가 더 불확실한 상태에서 채용 동결 및 낮은 수준으로의 감원을 통해 인원 수를 관리하고 있습니다. 공급업체 납품, 재고, 가격 및 수입으로 정의되는 투입물은 성장을 수용했습니다. Supplier Delivery Index는 적절한 긴장 수준에 도달했으며, 패널리스트 기업이 전체 공급망 재고를 계속 관리함에 따라 Inventories Index가 상승했습니다. 물가지수는 6개월 연속 하락하며 위축 국면에서 멀지 않았고 수입지수는 소폭 상승했다. “6대 제조업 중 4대 - 기계; 운송 장비; 식품, 음료 및 담배 제품; 컴퓨터 및 전자 제품 - 9월에 중간에서 강한 성장을 기록했습니다. “제조업이 28개월 연속 확대되었습니다. 패널리스트 회사는 고용 활동을 늦추었습니다. 월간 공급업체 납품 실적은 2019년 12월 이후 최고였습니다. 물가 상승률은 3개월 연속으로 현저하게 둔화되었습니다(60% 이하의 지수). 자본 장비 및 생산 자재의 리드 타임이 계속 단축되고 있습니다. 패널리스트의 의견에는 정리해고에 대한 대규모 언급이 없었습니다. 이는 기업이 단기 수요를 확신하고 있다는 것을 의미하므로 주요 목표는 중기 인력 수와 공급망 재고를 관리하는 것입니다.”라고 Fiore는 말합니다. 9개의 제조 산업이 9월에 다음과 같은 순서로 성장했다고 보고했습니다: 비금속 광물 제품; 기계; 플라스틱 및 고무제품; 기타 제조; 의류, 가죽 및 관련 제품; 운송 장비; 식품, 음료 및 담배 제품; 컴퓨터 및 전자 제품; 및 전기 장비, 가전 제품 및 구성 요소. 8월에 비해 9월에 수축을 보고한 7개 산업은 다음과 같습니다. 가구 및 관련 제품; 섬유 공장; 목제품; 인쇄 및 관련 지원 활동; 종이 제품; 화학 제품; 및 가공된 금속 제품. 응답자의 말 “모든 전자 부품 및 맞춤형 제작-인쇄 재료에 대한 공급망 문제는 용량과 숙련된 노동력 부족으로 인해 공급이 부족합니다. 에너지 비용은 계속해서 운임 비용에 부정적인 영향을 미칩니다.” [컴퓨터·전자제품] “글로벌 경기둔화 우려 커져 일부 고객 주문 철회” [화학제품] “생산 안정, 수요 소폭 둔화에도 잔고 감소 가능” [운송 장비] “거의 모든 공급업체가 리드 타임 증가를 경험하고 있습니다. 아무도 더 이상 재고를 보유하고 싶어하지 않는 것 같습니다.” [식품·음료·담배 제품] “물가상승률과 이자율로 사업이 침체기다. 경쟁업체의 임금 인상으로 직원을 구하고 유지하기 어렵습니다.” [금속가공품] “많은 품목에 대한 공급망 제약이 여전히 문제입니다. 생산 측의 인력 배치는 여전히 심각한 문제입니다. 대조적으로, 우리는 일부 주요 품목, 특히 수입품에 필요한 것보다 더 많은 재고를 보유하고 있으며 재고를 줄이기 위해 미결 구매 주문을 줄이고 해당 품목에 대한 확장 예측을 줄이기 시작했습니다.” [기계] “사업은 계속 강세입니다. 공급망 내의 일부 상품은 안정화되기 시작했지만 다른 상품은 여전히 ​​생산에 차질을 빚고 있습니다. 전기 및 배선 구성 요소는 계속해서 심각한 문제를 야기합니다. (우리는) 우리가 원하는 만큼 일관되게 달릴 수 없습니다.” [전기 장비, 가전 제품 및 부품] “호가 및 주문은 여전히 ​​강합니다. 그러나 모터 및 전자 부품 부족으로 인해 2022년(나머지 기간)에 대한 새로운 주문을 수락할 수 없습니다.” [기타 제조] “공급망은 여전히 ​​스트레스를 받고 있으며 가동 시간을 확보하기 위해 제조 공장에 문제를 일으키고 있습니다. 우리는 강력한 수요와 실행이 필요합니다.” [비금속광물] “사업은 여전히 ​​강하다. 원자재가 더 많이 이용 가능해지고 있고, 일부 원자재 가격은 하락하고 있습니다.” [플라스틱 및 고무 제품] MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE 2022년 9월 지수 시리즈 지수 9월 시리즈 지수 8월 퍼센트 포인트 변화 방향 변화율 추세* (월) 제조업 PMI® 50.9 52.8 -1.9 성장 둔화 28 신규 주문 47.1 51.3 -4.2 성장에서 축소 1 생산 50.6 50.4 0.2 더 빠르게 성장 28 고용 48.7 54.2 -5.5 성장에서 계약 1 공급업체 납품 52.4 55.1 -2.7 느리게 79 재고 증가 55.5 53.1 2.4 더 빠르게 53.1 2.4 더 빠르게 2.4 더 빠르게 14 고객 재고 .5 28 주문 잔고 50.9 53.0 -2.1 둔화된 성장 27 신규 수출 주문 47.8 49.4 -1.6 더 빠른 축소 2 수입 52.6 52.5 0.1 더 빠른 성장 4 전체 경제 성장 둔화 28 제조 보고서 On28 제조업 데이터의 계절 조정 ISM® 성장 속도가 느림 신규 주문, 생산, 고용 및 재고 지수. *현재 방향으로 움직이는 개월 수. 보고된 상품