S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ 24 October 2022 US Manufacturing PMI (3) at 49.9 (September: 52.0). 28-month low

 

 

 

 

Key findings: Flash US PMI Composite Output Index (1) at 47.3 (September: 49.5). 2-month low. Flash US Services Business Activity Index(2) at 46.6 (September: 49.3). 2-month low. Flash US Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 50.7 (September: 50.6). 5-month high. Flash US Manufacturing PMI (3) at 49.9 (September: 52.0). 28-month low.

 

 

Private sector firms in the US recorded a further downturn in output at the start of the fourth quarter, according to latest ‘flash’ PMI™ data from S&P Global. The fall in business activity was solid and stronger than that seen in September, as service providers signalled a quicker decline. Manufacturers, on the other hand, saw output rise for the second month running, albeit only marginally. The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 47.3 in October, down from 49.5 in September. With the exception of the initial pandemic period, the rate of decrease was the second-fastest since 2009. New orders returned to contraction territory in October. The decrease in new business was only marginal, but was broad based as manufacturers and service providers alike recorded weaker client demand. Goods producers drove the decline, with companies highlighting the impact of inflation and stockbuilding earlier in the year on customer demand, as clients utilised current holdings of inputs and semi-finished items. A reduction in foreign customer demand was also indicated as a strong dollar and challenging economic conditions in key export markets reportedly weighed on new export orders. New business from abroad fell sharply and at the quickest pace since May 2020. On the price front, input cost inflation picked up at the start of the fourth quarter, following a four-month period of softer price rises. The increase in cost burdens remained historically elevated, despite being the second-slowest since January 2021. Interest rates, material shortages and greater wage bills were linked to the uptick. S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index In an effort to drive new sales and remain competitive, firms reportedly offered concessions to customers following the decrease in some costs such as transportation. The rate of output charge inflation eased to the softest since December 2020, but was still quicker than the long-run series average. In line with weaker client demand, private sector firms scaled back their hiring activity, leaving employment broadly unchanged on the month. The seasonally adjusted Employment Index posted below the 50.0 neutral mark for the first time since June 2020, largely driven by a fall in service sector staffing numbers. Meanwhile, manufacturers registered a slower pace of job creation. A reduction in pressure on capacity was reflected in a fall in backlogs of work across the private sector. The service sector indicated a renewed fall in the level of outstanding business. Manufacturers, meanwhile, saw work-in-hand contract for the first time in over two years. Lower new order inflows allowed firms to begin working through incomplete business. Firms’ optimism about the outlook meanwhile deteriorated markedly in October. The resulting degree of confidence was among the lowest in the survey history and the weakest for just over two years. Although hopeful of a boost to customer demand after inflation peaks, companies remain concerned regarding price pressures and the cost of living, as well as the worsening broader economic outlook amid interest rate hikes and weak customer sentiment. News Release S&P Global Flash US Services PMI™ The S&P Global Flash US Services Business Activity Index posted at 46.6 in October, down from 49.3 in September, to indicate a solid decline in service sector output. The latest data signalled an acceleration in the decline in business activity to the second-fastest fall in almost two-and-a-half years. Firms linked the decrease to weak client demand and the impact of inflation and higher interest rates. At the same time, new business fell for the second time in the last three months, albeit only marginally overall. Weighing on total new sales was a drop in foreign client demand. New export orders declined at a solid pace due to inflationary pressure in key export markets. The rate of input price inflation at service providers quickened in October. Although the second-slowest since the start of 2021, the latest uptick reversed the recent trend of easing price pressures. Companies partially passed on higher cost burdens to their customers, as the pace of charge inflation picked up slightly. A return to decline in the level of outstanding business led to service sector firms reducing their workforce numbers during October. Companies noted the non-replacement of voluntary leavers, alongside some reports of lay-offs. The decrease in employment was the first since June 2020. Meanwhile, service sector business confidence fell to the weakest level since September 2020, as higher operating costs and client hesitancy weighed on optimism. S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI™ The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI registered 49.9 at the start of the final quarter of 2022, down from 52.0 in September. The latest data signalled broadly unchanged operating conditions on the month. Output across the manufacturing sector increased for the second month running in October, as firms noted easing supply chain pressures and the delivery of some key inputs. The rise in production was slight, but the quickest for five months. Vendor performance continued to deteriorate, but to the smallest extent since July 2020 as firms noted less marked extensions to input delivery times. At the same time, new orders fell back into contraction territory following a marginal expansion in September. The decrease in client demand was solid and the sharpest since May 2020. Alongside domestic inflationary pressures, total new orders were dampened by challenging economic conditions in key export destinations and dollar strength, as new export orders fell steeply. Cost inflationary pressures at manufacturers softened in October, with the pace of increase easing to the slowest in almost two years. Although still marked in the context of the series history, the rate of inflation reportedly eased following reductions in the price of some key materials including plastics and chemicals. Softer hikes in cost burdens were reflected in a slower rise in output charges. Manufacturers noted the weakest increase in selling prices since the end of 2020 in an effort to boost demand. Weak demand and easing supply chain delays allowed firms to work through their backlogs during October. Workin-hand fell solidly. Goods producers moderated the overall rate of job creation in response to the drop in order book backlogs, largely via the non-replacement of voluntary leavers. Less marked delays in input deliveries in part reflected weaker demand for materials as firms scaled back purchasing and utilised their current inventories. Input buying fell steeply and at the fastest pace since May 2020. Finally, output expectations regarding the year-ahead outlook at manufacturing firms slipped to the lowest in almost two-and-a-half years. Muted customer demand and inflation concerns reportedly dampened confidence. Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The US economic downturn gathered significant momentum in October, while confidence in the outlook also deteriorated sharply. The decline was led by a downward lurch in services activity, fuelled by the rising cost of living and tightening financial conditions. While output in manufacturing remains more resilient for now, October saw a steep drop in demand for goods, meaning current output is only being maintained by firms eating into backlogs of previously placed orders. Clearly this is unsustainable absent of a revival in demand, and it’s no surprise to see firms cutting back sharply on their input buying to prepare for lower output in coming months. “One upside of this drop in input buying has been a further alleviation of supply constraints, which alongside the stronger dollar have helped cool price pressures in the manufacturing sector. “Although price pressures picked up slightly in the service sector due to high food, energy and staff costs, as well as rising borrowing costs, increased competitive forces meant average prices charged for services grew at only a fractionally faster rate. Combined with the easing of price pressures in the goods-producing sector, this adds to evidence that consumer price inflation should cool in coming months. “The surveys therefore present a picture of the economy at increased risk of contracting in the fourth quarter at the same time that inflationary pressures remain stubbornly high. However, there are clearly signs that weakening demand is helping to moderate the overall rate of inflation, which should continue to fall in the coming months, especially if interest rates continue to rise.

 

 

 

 

 

S&P Global의 최신 '플래시' PMI™ 데이터에 따르면 미국의 민간 부문 기업은 4분기 초 생산량이 추가로 감소했습니다. 비즈니스 활동의 하락은 서비스 제공업체가 더 빠른 하락을 시사하면서 9월보다 견고하고 강력했습니다. 반면 제조업자들은 미미한 수준이기는 하지만 2개월 연속 생산량이 증가했다. 헤드라인 Flash US PMI 종합 산출 지수는 9월의 49.5에서 10월에 47.3을 기록했습니다. 초기 전염병 기간을 제외하고 감소 속도는 2009년 이후 두 번째로 빠른 것이었습니다. 

 

10월에 새로운 주문이 수축 영역으로 돌아갔습니다. 

 

신규 사업의 ​​감소는 미미한 수준이었지만 제조업체와 서비스 제공업체가 모두 약해진 고객 수요를 기록했기 때문에 광범위했습니다. 고객이 현재 보유하고 있는 투입재 및 반제품을 활용함에 따라 기업들은 올해 초 인플레이션과 재고 축적이 고객 수요에 미치는 영향을 강조하면서 상품 생산자가 하락을 주도했습니다. 해외 고객 수요의 감소는 또한 달러 강세와 주요 수출 시장의 어려운 경제 상황이 신규 수출 주문에 부담이 된 것으로 나타났습니다. 해외 신규 사업은 2020년 5월 이후 가장 빠른 속도로 급감했습니다. 가격 측면에서 투입 비용 인플레이션은 4개월 동안의 완만한 가격 상승 이후 4분기 초에 상승했습니다. 비용 부담의 증가는 2021년 1월 이후 두 번째로 느린 속도임에도 불구하고 역사적으로 높은 수준을 유지했습니다. 금리, 재료 부족 및 더 많은 임금 청구서가 상승과 관련이 있습니다. S&P Global Flash US PMI 종합 산출 지수 신규 판매를 유도하고 경쟁력을 유지하기 위해 기업들은 운송과 같은 일부 비용이 감소한 후 고객에게 양보를 제안한 것으로 알려졌습니다. 산출 요금 인플레이션 비율은 2020년 12월 이후 가장 완만하게 완화되었지만 여전히 장기 시리즈 평균보다 빨랐습니다. 고객 수요가 약해짐에 따라 민간 부문 기업은 고용 활동을 축소하여 이 달의 고용을 크게 변경하지 않았습니다. 계절적으로 조정된 고용 지수는 2020년 6월 이후 처음으로 50.0 중립선 아래를 기록했으며, 이는 주로 서비스 부문 직원 수의 감소에 기인합니다. 한편 제조업자들은 일자리 창출 속도가 더딘 것으로 나타났다. 용량에 대한 압력의 감소는 민간 부문 전반에 걸친 작업 백로그의 감소에 반영되었습니다. 서비스업은 미지급 사업의 수준이 다시 하락했습니다. 한편 제조사들은 2년 만에 처음으로 재택근무 계약을 체결했다. 

 

낮은 신규 주문 유입으로 인해 기업은 불완전한 비즈니스를 통해 작업을 시작할 수 있었습니다. 

 

한편, 전망에 대한 기업의 낙관론은 10월에 크게 악화되었습니다. 그 결과 신뢰도는 조사 역사상 가장 낮았고 불과 2년 만에 가장 약했습니다. 인플레이션이 정점에 도달한 후 고객 수요가 증가할 것이라는 희망을 갖고 있지만, 기업들은 물가 압력과 생활비, 금리 인상과 약한 고객 심리로 인한 전반적인 경제 전망 악화에 대해 여전히 우려하고 있습니다. 보도 자료 S&P 글로벌 플래시 미국 서비스 PMI™ S&P 글로벌 플래시 미국 서비스 비즈니스 활동 지수(S&P Global Flash US Services Business Activity Index)는 9월 49.3에서 10월 46.6으로 발표되어 서비스 부문 생산량이 견실하게 감소했음을 나타냅니다. 최신 데이터에 따르면 비즈니스 활동 감소가 가속화되어 거의 2년 반 만에 두 번째로 빠른 감소가 나타났습니다. 기업들은 감소를 약한 고객 수요와 인플레이션 및 높은 이자율의 영향으로 연결했습니다. 동시에 신규 사업은 지난 3개월 동안 두 번째로 감소했지만 전체적으로는 미미했습니다. 총 신규 판매에 무게를 둔 것은 외국인 고객 수요의 감소였습니다. 신규 수출 주문은 주요 수출 시장의 인플레이션 압력으로 인해 견고한 속도로 감소했습니다. 10월 서비스 제공업체의 입력 가격 인플레이션 비율이 빨라졌습니다. 2021년 초 이후 두 번째로 느리지만 최근 상승세는 최근 가격 압력을 완화하는 추세를 뒤집었습니다. 요금 인플레이션 속도가 약간 빨라지면서 기업들은 부분적으로 더 높은 비용 부담을 고객에게 전가했습니다. 우수한 비즈니스 수준의 하락으로 복귀하여 서비스 부문 기업은 10월 동안 인력 수를 줄였습니다. 회사들은 일부 정리해고 보고서와 함께 자발적 이직자가 대체되지 않는다는 점을 지적했습니다. 고용 감소는 2020년 6월 이후 처음입니다. 한편, 서비스 부문 비즈니스 신뢰는 높은 운영 비용과 고객의 주저함이 낙관론을 짓누르면서 2020년 9월 이후 가장 약한 수준으로 떨어졌습니다. S&P 글로벌 플래시 미국 제조업 PMI™ S&P 글로벌 플래시 미국 제조업 PMI는 2022년 4분기 초에 49.9를 기록했으며, 이는 9월의 52.0에서 하락한 것입니다. 최신 데이터는 해당 월의 운영 조건이 대체로 변경되지 않았음을 나타냅니다. 10월에 이어 두 번째 달 동안 제조업 부문의 생산량이 증가했습니다.

 

기업은 공급망 압력을 완화하고 일부 핵심 투입물을 전달하는 데 주목했습니다. 생산량 증가는 미미했지만 5개월 만에 가장 빨랐다. 공급업체 실적은 계속해서 악화되었지만 기업이 입력 배송 시간에 대한 현저한 연장이 덜하다는 점을 지적함에 따라 2020년 7월 이후 가장 작은 수준으로 악화되었습니다.

 

 동시에 신규 주문은 9월에 소폭 확장된 후 다시 수축 영역으로 떨어졌습니다. 

 

고객 수요 감소는 견조했고 2020년 5월 이후 가장 급격했습니다. 

 

국내 인플레이션 압력과 함께 신규 수출 주문이 급격히 감소하면서 주요 수출 목적지의 어려운 경제 상황과 달러 강세로 인해 총 신규 주문이 위축되었습니다.

 

제조업체의 비용 인플레이션 압력은 10월에 누그러졌고 증가 속도는 거의 2년 만에 가장 느려졌습니다.

 

시리즈 역사의 맥락에서 여전히 표시되지만 플라스틱 및 화학 물질을 포함한 일부 핵심 재료의 가격 하락으로 인플레이션율이 완화된 것으로 보고됩니다. 원가부담의 완만한 인상은 산출료의 상승속도 둔화에 반영되었다. 제조업체들은 수요를 부양하기 위한 노력의 일환으로 2020년 말 이후 가장 약한 판매 가격 인상을 기록했습니다. 수요 약세와 공급망 지연 완화로 기업들은 10월 동안 잔고를 처리할 수 있었습니다. 손에 든 작업이 단단히 떨어졌습니다. 상품 생산자들은 주로 자발적 이탈자를 대체하지 않음으로써 주문서 잔고 감소에 대한 응답으로 전체 일자리 창출 비율을 조정했습니다. 투입물 인도의 현저한 지연은 부분적으로 기업이 구매를 축소하고 현재 재고를 활용함에 따라 자재에 대한 수요 감소를 반영했습니다. 인풋 구매는 2020년 5월 이후 가장 빠른 속도로 급감했습니다. 마지막으로, 제조 회사의 올해 전망에 대한 생산량 기대치는 거의 2년 반 만에 최저로 떨어졌습니다. 잠잠해진 고객 수요와 인플레이션 우려가 신뢰를 약화시킨 것으로 알려졌다. S&P Global Market Intelligence의 수석 비즈니스 이코노미스트인 Chris Williamson은 플래시 PMI 데이터에 대해 다음과 같이 말했습니다. 이러한 하락은 생활비 상승과 재정 상황 악화로 인한 서비스 활동의 하락이 주도했습니다. 제조업의 생산량은 현재로서는 더 회복력이 있는 반면, 

 

10월에는 상품 수요가 급격히 감소했습니다. 

 

즉, 현재 생산량은 이전 주문의 잔고를 먹고 있는 기업들만이 유지되고 있음을 의미합니다.

 

분명히 이것은 수요 회복 없이는 지속 가능하지 않으며,

 

기업들이 향후 몇 달 동안 더 낮은 생산량을 준비하기 위해 투입 구매를 급격히 줄이는 것을 보는 것은 놀라운 일이 아닙니다.

 

“이러한 투입 구매 감소의 장점 중 하나는 공급 제약이 더욱 완화되었다는 점이며, 이는 달러 강세와 함께 제조 부문의 가격 압력을 낮추는 데 도움이 되었습니다. “높은 식품, 에너지 및 직원 비용과 차입 비용 증가로 인해 서비스 부문에서 가격 압력이 약간 증가했지만 경쟁력이 높아짐에 따라 서비스에 부과되는 평균 가격이 약간 더 빠른 속도로 상승했습니다. 이는 상품 생산 부문의 가격 압력 완화와 함께 소비자 물가 인플레이션이 앞으로 몇 달 안에 진정될 것이라는 증거를 추가합니다. "따라서 설문조사는 인플레이션 압력이 완고하게 높은 상태를 유지하는 동시에 4분기에 수축 위험이 증가된 경제의 모습을 보여줍니다. 그러나 수요 약화가 전반적인 인플레이션을 완화하는 데 도움이 되고 있다는 분명한 징후가 있습니다. 인플레이션은 특히 금리가 계속 상승할 경우 계속 하락할 것입니다.